Aerospace major Boeing projects that China will need 8,560 new commercial airplanes through 2042, and that the country will also account for 20 percent of the world’s airplane deliveries in the next two decades. The forecast is based on China’s significant economic growth well above the global average and fast growing demand for domestic air travel.
The estimates, presented in Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook or CMO, also indicate that China’s commercial fleet will generate demand for $675 billion in aviation services including maintenance, repair, training and spare parts.
Along with the new airplanes, China will require 433,000 new aviation personnel to meet its growing market requirements. This would include 134,000 pilots, 138,000 technicians and 161,000 cabin crew members.
Boeing’s long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and related services further shows that China’s commercial airliner fleet will more than double to nearly 9,600 jets over the next 20 years. The country’s domestic aviation market is also expected to be the largest in the world by the end of the forecast period. This will help power demand for 6,470 single-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing 737 MAX family.
The 2023 China CMO forecast also indicates that through 2042, Chinese carriers will require 1,550 widebody airplanes, along with demand for single-aisle jets, mainly to support a growing network of international routes.
It is expected that fleet growth will drive two thirds of forecast deliveries in China. The remainder will replace older jets with modern airplanes that increase efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions.
Further, the CMO shows continued growth in e-commerce and express shipping to drive demand for 190 new freighter deliveries.
Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president, Commercial Marketing, said, “Domestic air traffic in China has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels and international traffic is recovering steadily. As China’s economy and traffic continue to grow, Boeing’s complete line-up of commercial jets will play a key role in helping meet that growth sustainably and economically.”
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